In this article, we develop an analytical framework drawing upon Acemoglu’s and Robinson’s theory that links developmental potential of the state to its political and economic institutions (inclusive and extractive), and that of Etel Solingen’s relating type of governing coalitions to foreign policy strategies and regional politics. States that adopted inclusive institutions tend to be governed by internationalist coalitions and their external interactions are based on cooperation, whereas those with extractive institutions tend to pursue adversarial regional strategies. Using the developed analytical framework, the article addresses the following three questions:
(1) How has the choice of a strategy for dismantling state socialism shaped the transition towards market-based democracy?
(2) What impact did choices made have upon patterns of intra-European relations in terms of cooperation and confrontation?
(3) What factors may explain differences in respective trajectories and external strategies?
The post-communist systemic transformation took place in an international environment favouring cooperation with the elites of the former Soviet bloc in introducing institutional changes. Western friendly policies and assistance helped internationalist coalitions maintain power but had no impact on the transition from the statist-nationalist-confessional coalition, even when it was weak. Despite initial attempts and strong encouragement from international community, Russia failed to establish inclusive political and economic institutions. The prevalence of the statist-national coalition adversely affected transition processes in its immediate vicinity – primarily in the former ‘Slavic republics’, such as Ukraine and Belarus.