The Impact of the Russian-Ukrainian War on Europe and the German Leadership

Abstrakt

The research methods used in this article are systems analysis supported by text analysis. The aim is to look at Germany as part of a larger Euro--Atlantic system (including the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization), in which leadership is one of the resources. The article draws attention to the process that affects the ‘flows/processes’ within this resource, i.e. the Russian–Ukrainian conflict. The research hypothesis is the statement about the impact of the conflict in Ukraine as a ‘flow’ on the coherence of the closed Euro-Atlantic system and its leadership ‘resource’, the effect of which is a ‘feedback’ affecting the size and nature of the resource (change in the nature of German leadership in Europe, e.g. the transition from political-economic leadership to political-economic-military leadership). When using these methods, I will refer to available data, analyses, and forecasts, including: NATO Review, the Department of Defense of the United States, the European Commission, Auswärtiges Amt, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the Carnegie Europe, Stratfor, the European Network Remembrance and Solidarity. The analysis of the mentioned data will be supported by the analysis of scientific and media discourse in Germany, Europe, and the USA. The Russia–Ukraine war is seen as the end of the old international order and the beginning of a new Cold War 2.0. From Berlin’s perspective, this is another ‘crisis’ that may become a catalyst for a deeper redefinition of German leadership in Europe. The emerging ‘flows’ in the form of the Russian–Ukrainian conflict and the related threat to which the border states of the Euro-Atlantic system are particularly exposed do not affect its use as an impulse to change the leading role of Germany (feedback). The leadership discourse in Germany and the taken steps clearly indicate that the current German government is in an intermediate phase and it tries to fill the gap between the German leading role (‘leadership aspiration’) and the actual performance of Germany (‘leadership reality’). For now, German leadership will have the character of leadership a la primus inter pares. The German security strategy opts for integrated security, in which Germany will play the role of an honest broker or a reluctant leader. The planned German leadership system in the EU is to be compatible with the military power of NATO and the USA.