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Vol. 53 No. 4 (2025)

Research Articles

Counterfactual Scenarios – the Concept, Essence and Significance for the Discussion on Contemporary International Relations

DOI: https://doi.org/10.35757/STP.2025.53.4.07
Submitted: December 19, 2025
Published: December 22, 2025

Abstract

The article addresses the issue of counterfactual scenarios (in relation to the past) and their significance for the discussion on contemporary international relations. It explains the essence of counterfactual reasoning. It presents considerations on the method of counterfactual scenarios’ constructing, their structure and typology, as well as the criteria for their selection and assessment. These considerations are accompanied by an analysis of examples of counterfactual scenarios and their specificity. The article refers to controversies raised by counterfactual reasoning, criticism directed at counterfactual scenarios, and the arguments of their supporters. The author’s conclusions recognize the auxiliary role of counterfactual scenarios in relation to traditional methods of studying international relations but acknowledge the difficulties associated with their speculative nature and the criteria for their assessment, which remain vague. Counterfactual scenarios will find it difficult to escape the broader theoretical controversies in international relations and they themselves can contribute little to this debate. Besides, the dynamics and complexity of contemporary international processes increases the risk of simplified and sometimes absurd conclusions that they may propose.

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