Przejdź do głównego menu Przejdź do sekcji głównej Przejdź do stopki

Tom 50 Nr 2 (2022)

Terroryzm

Between the Fourth and Fifth Waves: The Evolution of Modern Terrorism

DOI: https://doi.org/10.35757/STP.2022.50.2.06
Przesłane: 30 listopada 2022
Opublikowane: 28 października 2022

Abstrakt

Assuming that the third decade of the 21st century is a transition period between the fourth and fifth waves of terrorism, in accordance with D.C. Rapoport’s concept of cyclicity of terrorism, the article focuses on the evolution of modern terrorism. The main features of the four waves of terrorism identified so far are presented sequentially. Then, reasons for initiating the decline of the fourth wave are identified and the perspectives for the constitution of the fifth wave of terrorism are explored. In the first section of the article, referring to the definition of terrorism and based on D.C. Rapoport’s concept of waves of modern terrorism, we demonstrate the determining factors, characteristics and elements which constitute this phenomenon. In the subsequent sections, we seek answers to the following questions: What are the characteristic features of the previous four waves of terrorism? What factors are leading to the decline of the fourth wave of terrorism? Which characteristics of the fourth wave of terrorism may be taken over by the next wave? What are the concepts of the fifth wave of modern terrorism? Research methods and techniques appropriate for the field of social sciences, particularly political science, are used in the study.

Bibliografia

  1. Ali J., The 5th Wave of Rebel Terrorism, „The Cipher Brief”, 24.02.2021, https://www.thecipherbrief.com/column/agenda-setter/the-5th-wave-of-rebel-terrorism [accessed 19.04.2022].
  2. Atran S., Talking to the Enemy. Faith, Brotherhood, and the (Un)making of Terrorists, Ecco Press, New York 2010, pp. 92–98.
  3. Auger V.A., Right-Wing Terror: A Fifth Global Wave?, „Perspectives on Terrorism” 2020, vol. 14, no. 3, pp. 87–97.
  4. Barkun M., A Culture of Conspiracy: Apocalyptic Visions in Contemporary America, University of California Press, Berkley 2003, pp. 3–4.
  5. Berman P., Terror and Liberalism, W.W. Horton & Company, New York – London 2003, pp. 12–15.
  6. Brachman J., Global Jihadism. Theory and Practice, Routledge, New York – London 2007, pp. 10–21.
  7. Burnett J., D. Whyte, Embedded Expertise and the New Terrorism, „Journal for Crime, Confl ict and the Media” 2005, vol. 1, no. 4, s. 5.
  8. Celso A.N., The Islamic State and Boko Haram: Fifth Wave Jihadist Terror Groups, „Orbis” 2015, t. 59, no. 2, pp. 249–268.
  9. Chalk P., The Nature of Contemporary Terrorism: Problems of Definition. The Evolving Dynamic, Palgrave Macmillan, London 1996, p. 9.
  10. Chertoff M., P. Bury, D. Richterova, Bytes Not Waves: Information Communication Technologies, Global jihadism and Counterterrorism, „International Affairs” 2020, vol. 96, no. 5, pp. 1305–1325.
  11. Dow B.J. et al., The COVID-19 Pandemic and the Search for Structure: Social Media and Conspiracy Theories, „Social and Personality Psychology Compass” 2021, vol. 15, no. 9, https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/spc3.12636 [accessed 19.04.2022].
  12. Gerges F.A., ISIS: A History, Princeton University Press, Princeton – Oxford 2016, pp. 50–97.
  13. Griffin M., Islamic State. Rewriting History, Pluto Press, London 2016, pp. 8–31, 99–106.
  14. Haddad Y.Y., Islamist Perceptions of U.S. Policy in the Middle East, in: The Middle East and the United States. A Historical and Political Reassessment, ed. D.W. Lesch, Westview Press, Cambridge 2003, pp. 483–486.
  15. Hart A., Right-Wing Waves: Applying the Four Waves Theory to Transnational and Transhistorical Right-Wing Threat Trends, „Terrorism and Political Violence” 2021, https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09546553.2020.1856818 [accessed 19.04.2022].
  16. Hemmer C., Which Lessons Matter? American Foreign Policy Decision Making in the Middle East, 1979–1987, State University of New York Press, New York 2000, pp. 47–90.
  17. Hirschmann K., The Changing Face of Terrorism, „International Politics and Society” 2000, no. 3, p. 299.
  18. Hoffman B., Inside Terrorism, Columbia University Press, New York 1998, p. 44.
  19. Honig O., I. Yahel, A Fifth Wave of Terrorism? The Emergence of Terrorist Semi-States, „Terrorism and Political Violence” 2019, vol. 31, no. 6, pp. 1210–1228.
  20. Jalil M.R., The Rise of the Fifth Wave of Global Terrorism (Islamophobia), „Margalla Papers. A Journal of International Affairs” 2021, vol. 25, no. 2, p. 16.
  21. Kaag J., S. Kreps, Drone Warfare, Polity Press, Cambridge 2014, pp. 97–98.
  22. Kaldor M., New and Old Wars. Organized Violence in a Global Era, Polity Press, Cambridge 2014, pp. 164–166.
  23. Kaplan J., Terrorism’s Fifth Wave: A Theory, a Conundrum and a Dilemma, „Perspectives on Terrorism” 2008, vol. 2, no. 2, p. 13.
  24. Kaplan J., Terrorist Groups and the New Tribalism. Terrorism’s Fifth Wave, Routledge, London – New York 2012.
  25. Kaplan J., A Strained Criticism of Wave Theory, „Terrorism and Political Violence” 2016, vol. 28, no. 2, pp. 228–235.
  26. Kaplan J., Waves of Political Terrorism, „Oxford Research Encyclopedias. Politics”, 29.10.2021, https://oxfordre.com/politics/view/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.001.0001/acrefore-9780190228637-e-24 [accessed 13.07.2022].
  27. Meisels T., The Trouble with Terror: The Apologetics of Terrorism – a Refutation, „Terrorism and Political Violence” 2006, vol. 18, no. 3, p. 470.
  28. O’Kane R.H.T., Terrorism, Pearson Longman, Harlow 2007, pp. 24–26.
  29. Parker T., N. Sitter, The Four Horsemen of Terrorism: It’s Not Waves, It’s Strains, „Terrorism and Political Violence” 2016, vol. 28, no. 2, pp. 197–216.
  30. Perliger A., Middle Eastern Terrorism, Chelsea House, New York 2006, pp. 49–51.
  31. Radil S.M., J.C. Pinos, Reexamining the Four Waves of Modern Terrorism: A Territorial Interpretation, „Studies in Conflict & Terrorism” 2022, vol. 45, no. 4, pp. 311–330.
  32. Rapoport D.C., It Is Waves, Not Strains, „Terrorism and Political Violence” 2016, vol. 28, no. 2, p. 222.
  33. Rapoport D.C., The Four Waves of Modern Terrorism, in: Attacking Terrorism. Elements of a Grand Strategy, ed. A.K. Cronin, J.M. Ludes, Georgetown University Press, Washington 2004, pp. 46–68.
  34. Richardson L., What Terrorists Want: Understanding the Enemy, Containing the Threat, Random House, New York 2006, p. 4.
  35. Sedgwick M., Inspiration and the Origins of Global Waves of Terrorism, „Studies in Conflict & Terrorism” 2007, vol. 30, no. 2, pp. 97–112.
  36. Simon J.D., Technological and Lone Operator Terrorism: Prospects for a Fifth Wave of Global Terrorism, in: Terrorism, Identity and Legitimacy, ed. J.E. Rosenfeld, Routledge, New York 2011, pp. 48–59.
  37. Soufan A., Evolution of Jihadism 20 Years After 9/11, Wilson Center, 8.09.2021, https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/evolution-jihadism-20-years-after-911 [accessed 19.04.2022].
  38. Stuurman Z., Terrorism as Controversy: The Shifting Definition of Terrorism in State Politics, E-International Relations, 24.09.2019, https://www.e-ir.info/pdf/80101 [accessed 19.04.2022].
  39. Thomas C., Afghanistan: Background and U.S. Policy. In Brief, Congressional Research Service, 25.03.2021, https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R45122.pdf [accessed 19.04.2022].
  40. Thomas C., Afghanistan: Background and U.S. Policy. Report, Congressional Research Service, 5.02.2018, https://fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/R43756.pdf [accessed 19.04.2022].
  41. Tibi B., The Challenge of Fundamentalism. Political Islam and the New World Disorder, University of California Press, Berkley 2002, pp. 149–157.
  42. Walls E., Waves of Modern Terrorism: Examining the Past and Predicting the Future [thesis], Georgetown University, Washington 2017, https://repository.library.georgetown.edu/bitstream/handle/10822/1043900/Walls_georgetown_0076M_13610.pdf?s, 65-88 [accessed 19.04.2022].
  43. Ward A., How Do You Define Terrorism?, RAND Corporation 2018, https://www.rand.org/blog/2018/06/how-do-you-define-terrorism.html [accessed 19.04.2022].
  44. Warius A., B. Fishman, A Jihadist’s Course in the Art of Recruitment, „CTC Sentinel” 2009, vol. 2, no. 2.
  45. Woolf A., Terrorism, Rosen Central, New York 2011, pp. 8–10.
  46. Zelin A.Y., Jihadis 2021: ISIS & al Qaeda, Wilson Center, 17.03.2021, https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/jihadis-2021-isis-al-qaeda [accessed 19.04.2022].

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Podobne artykuły

<< < 1 2 

Możesz również Rozpocznij zaawansowane wyszukiwanie podobieństw dla tego artykułu.